June delivered a strong recovery from May’s selloff, capping the best first half for the S&P 500 since 1997. We saw record stock market highs in a growing but slowing economy with a very strong job market (consumer), healthy banks (Fed CCR), continuing de-regulation, accommodative global central banks, and continued U.S. fiscal stimulus. The more skeptical in the crowd would point to an inverted yield curve, a material slowdown in economic growth, trade war(s), an unclear Brexit outcome, Middle East tensions, and a strong bid for safe haven bonds/gold. In any case, stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, and commodities all moved sharply higher on the month as a trade deal with Mexico, a temporary trade truce with China, and an accommodative Fed narrative all factored into the recovery rally.
