November 2025 Monthly Market Update

Equities closed November relatively flat with the S&P 500 scratching out a 0.2% gain for the month, a seventh consecutive positive month, taking year-to-date gains to a robust 17.8%. International developed markets were flat but emerging markets declined 2.4% with weak performance from China the primary culprit. U.S. market leadership continued to revolve around AI-linked technology companies, though breadth improved with value stocks (+2.7%) outperforming growth stocks (-1.8%) by a decent margin for the month and the equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the headline S&P 500. The technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.4%, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.0%, reflecting similar breadth and style characteristics. Bond markets were also up in November with the taxable Aggregate Bond index up 0.6% and tax-free Municipal index up 0.2%, taking year-to-date returns to 7.5% and 4.2% respectively. Commodity markets posted solid gains across energy, agriculture, industrial and precious metals. Oil prices fell 3.1% in November, but natural gas surged 11.3% and gold rallied 6%, notching another record high.

Economic data was sparse throughout the month due to the government shutdown, keeping investors reliant on non-governmental reports and high-frequency indicators. There were no official labor-market reports, but private sector surveys and job boards continued to point to a slowing yet not sharply deteriorating backdrop. Inflation data was also lacking and while cumulative effects of inflation since 2022 are weighing on lower and middle-class consumers, the yearly rate of change in prices are coming in line with expectations and trending down toward the longer-term historical 2%-3% range. Spending indicators, including credit-card data and service-sector surveys, suggested resilient consumption despite labor market softness, reflecting what is referred to as a K-shaped economy where the top 25% of income earners are driving consumption while the bottom 50% are feeling stress. The housing market remains very challenged due to constrained supply and lack of affordability, given elevated home prices and mortgage rates.

On the policy front, monetary policy from the Fed remained a key market driver. Officials continued to debate the appropriate pace of easing amid limited data visibility, with discussions revolving around FOMC dissent and Fed independence becoming more prominent. Markets also digested ongoing trade policy developments, including incremental softening of tariff measures and looming judicial scrutiny of executive branch authority on tariff tax levies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Things were quite from a fiscal policy standpoint following the end of the shutdown, though the broader conversation around deficits, long-term debt sustainability, and the timing of remaining OBBB fiscal support persisted.

Taken together, November reflected another steady, albeit uneven, month for risk assets characterized by signs of rotation away from technology/AI-oriented leadership, economic resilience, and a generally supportive policy backdrop. With only a month remaining, 2025 has the markings of a resoundingly positive outcome for both bond and equity markets as a whole.